
Chance are, if you’re self-employed, March 31 marked the end of your first quarter.
You might wonder, “Yeah, so what?”
So this…
Your number
If you took me up on my suggestion (the one I made in January; the one you’ll find right here) you’ll have established a number.
By the way, and sorry if this is more obvious than the nose on my face (with that nose, I smell real good), but your number? Well it isn’t a sure-fire wager you’ll be placing with your local bookie.
***tangent alert*** You know I don’t even know, but, bookies… Do they even exist anymore or have they gone the way of the milkman, the blacksmith and the plain-talking politician? Which reminds me. We had a milkman once. Back in the eighties I think it was. Blacksmiths and plain-talking politicians? I can’t recall seeing many of those… ***end of tangent alert***
So, what is this “number” thing?
OK, ignore all that stuff about politicians and milkmen alright? I just threw that in to show you that accountants know how to be funny too (yeah, okay, I know, don’t quit the day job).
So, what then does the number mean?
Your number is, in fact, a financial commitment typified by a revenue forecast.
And what that means is, your number represents the amount you are planning to bill this year.
That’s it. Plain and simple. No budgets. No pro-formas. No balance sheets. No waiting.
One number. That’s all you need.
And now, given the quarter—Q1—has come and gone, it’s time for a quick and easy spot-check. A casual, yet crucial, approximation, in fact.
Here’s all you need to do.
The Preview
Add up your actual Q1 billings, and then multiply that amount by 4. Let’s call the result of that mathematical exercise your Q1 preview.
Now, compare the Q1 preview to your number.
What did you get? Is the Q1 preview greater than the number?
It is?
Hey, that’s great!
Don’t just stand there, go ahead, pat yourself on the back. Because what that means is you’re ahead of forecast.
What if, however, your Q1 preview lags behind the number?
No worries. It’s OK. Really.
You’ve still got another three quarters to make up the difference.
The fine print
One other thing, however you fared, remember this.
The calculation you used to arrive at the preview makes one major—one heroic—assumption.
It assumes that your business isn’t cyclical, and that all sales occur equally throughout the year.
Like I said; an heroic assumption
And that’s why the end of Q1 (if you’re ahead of forecast) is not the time to be breaking out the bubbly and perusing colour options for a new Jaguar. (Yeah, go ahead, call me a killjoy).
At the same time, if you’re behind forecast, don’t be getting down-in-the-mouth and thinking about crawling out to the edge of the ledge either.
Here’s why…
Here’s the thing (and it’s an important thing)
While it might seem you’re monitoring progress—which, in a sense, you are.
What’s really happening is, you’re focusing the mind and refreshing the reminder you set back in January–the one about your financial target.
And, well, you know… targets?
They’re a good thing.

I have an invitation for you. But first, the backstory;





